Economic Assessment of JKIA 2nd Runway
TIMCON teamed up with EDR of Boston USA to undertake this assessment that involved analysis of the potential economic impact of the proposal to construct a second runway at JKIA. Multiple aviation forecasts were developed based on projected growth rates of Kenyan GDP, and then assessed a number of alternatives including a base case (“business as usual”), expanding the existing runway and constructing a second runway as well as a management alternative with small planes diverted to Wilson airport. Adopted growth rates representing the most likely forecast was developed through regression analysis on historical data considering relationships between passenger and cargo volumes at JKIA, and Kenyan GDP.
It was found that developing a runway to accommodate Class F aircraft would provide significant benefits for JKIA and to the economy of Kenya. The net present value of constructing a new runway is far greater than expanding the existing runway and leaving JKIA as a one-runway airport.